Scenario-type Planning

Futuring and Innovation: Planning and Forecasting II

CS875-2202C-01

Unit 6 Individual Project

Raphael Brown

Colorado Technical University

Instructor: Dr. Cynthia Calongne

Date Due: 04/17/22

Scenario-type Planning 

A case study illustrating how a corporation or an industry failed to engage in adequate scenario-type planning and instead relied only on typical forecasting methods is shown.

            The bankruptcy of Monitor Group is an example of a case study that demonstrates how a firm or an industry failed to do effective scenario-type planning and instead relied only on expected forecasts. In 2012, Speed Matters published an article stating that Monitor Group's bankruptcy was the consequence of a delay in taking solid efforts to avert bankruptcy, which they were engaged to resolve for their customers in the first place. Recognizing the shortsightedness of an organization requires personal reflection on the part of the people in charge of the organization. Identifying the specific corporate and communal expressions of such shortsightedness is more complicated. The declaration of bankruptcy by Monitor is an excellent example of this. The failure to do effective scenario-type planning was a significant difficulty for the Monitor Group. When it comes to companies, the difficulty is reflected in the fact that collectively held views may drive management teams to disregard developing patterns of fact that suggest step-function change. The two challenges can collide in companies with strong intellectual capabilities, such as Monitor, with fatal consequences. The Monitor was a provider of scenario planning services, among other things, and was well-known in the industry. Unfortunately, most of what passes for scenario thinking is little more than a kind of executive amusement masquerading as applicable (Speed Matters, 2012).

What role does scenario-type planning play in planning and innovation for change?

When scenario planning is correctly done, it can aid in the planning and innovation of the change process by offering the tools for making strategic choices and taking swift remedial action when something goes wrong (Kearney, 2012). For business executives looking to make sense of the complex causes of global change and their consequences for their organizations, scenario-based strategic planning has re-emerged as a crucial tool. However, to stay relevant, scenario planning must adapt as a strategic tool to keep up with the always-changing business environment. Beginning with a reorientation of scenario-planning exercises to emphasize the strategic tools and advantages that the process produces, this development must be undertaken (Kearney, 2012).

The forces at play, as well as the consequences of their actions

In scenario planning, two factors have been noted as necessary: the immediate and widespread worldwide effect of unanticipated events such as 9/11 or the global economic crisis; and the increased rate at which new trends become tangible. For example, the fast expansion of China and India, the advent of social media, and the widespread use of smartphones have all happened within a decade or less of one another (Axson, 2011). Axson (2011) also demonstrates a fundamental technique that may be used as an example or as a model for a scenario-based action plan:

Future innovation endeavors will benefit from the use of scenario planning.

            Future innovation initiatives will need the generation of a dynamic succession of probable outcomes that will help to challenge prejudices. This will be accomplished via the use of scenario planning. It will be necessary to research existing organizations that may be used in such situations. This would allow the process to reveal blind spots and find the factors that bring companies together around a widely agreed sense of direction and action (or lack thereof).

Prepare a scenario plan and take into consideration the social impact of change.

            The social effect of the change is taken into consideration in the scenario planning process. First and foremost, it provides executives with a deeper awareness of their environment and the macro forces of change at work, allowing them to drill down to decision-making at the operational level with more confidence (Axson, 2011). Scenario planning is concerned with creating a vision for the future. Essentially, it is a way through which businesses may develop an understanding of probable future situations and how they can impact their strategic goals. When challenges or changes arise, an organization will be able to make better choices due to the use of these scenarios. Scenario Planning Templates are a valuable tool for assisting you with your strategic planning, product or service development processes, and other tasks.

 

References

Axson, D. J. (2011). Scenario Planning: Navigating Through Today's Uncertain World. Journal of Accountancy. Retrieved from http://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2011/mar/20103483.html

Kearney, A. T. (2012). Scenario-Based Strategic Planning in Times of Tumultuous Change. Retrieved from https://www.atkearney.com/documents/10192/376745/Scenario-Based_Strategic_Planning_in_Times_of_Tumultuous_Change.pdf/0012fe94-4038-449b-8423-bc81a3dba1a5

Speed Matters (2012). Monitor Group: A Failure of Scenario Planning. Retrieved from http://spendmatters.com/2012/11/13/monitor-group-a-failure-of-scenario-planning/