Sunday, May 8, 2022

Futuring and Innovation: The Sociotechnical Plan


 

     CS875-2202C-01

     Raphael Brown 

                                                                 05/08/22


Sociotechnical System

 

Introduction

                It seems like a lifetime ago when I was a child, although it was only a few years ago (laughing). I had considered building an electric vehicle with an electric motor; of course, this would allow the vehicle to regenerate its power from its motion, similar to how an alternator keeps a battery charged in a gasoline-powered vehicle. In my mind, I imagined installing generators on all four wheels, allowing the batteries to remain charged so that the automobile could keep moving without halting until it reached its objective. The electric automobile is vital; nonetheless, it has not yet achieved the full potential that I had envisioned. The electric vehicle must halt at two to four hundred miles and have its batteries refilled. My vision of the electric vehicle continues to be that it should be able to run on its power without the need to stop and replenish its batteries or to use solar energy to power it. Although it is unlikely that my vision will be realized shortly, I remain optimistic that it will be realized over the next twenty to thirty years, given the technological advancements we have seen so far.

Scope

Characteristics of an Electric Vehicle

                Electric vehicles are quiet, comfortable, cost-effective, and exhilarating to drive. Because an electric motor is smaller than an internal combustion engine, it allows for more inside space and a more pleasant driving experience. Torque, often known as pulling power, is available quickly, peak speeds surpass legal restrictions, and there are no gears to shift through. All-electric vehicles are automated, and they come equipped with the amenities we expect in high-end vehicles, such as a navigation system (with range advice and alternatives), air conditioning, temperature control, a phone charger, and Bluetooth connectivity. All of the NCAP safety ratings are 4 or 5 stars.

            Additional desired features include park assist cameras, high-resolution intelligent displays, touch screens, 30-minute quick charging, auto-wipers and lights, a unique design, and environmentally friendly components. Many electric vehicle models also have park assist cameras. The three charging features are:

Rapid Charging

            Charge for 30 minutes at 80 percent capacity using a quick charging station. These are often seen at highway service stations, municipal parking lots, and garages. It is not the most cost-effective method of charging your automobile, but it does provide the ability to drive outside its range.

It's worth considering Ecotricity as your energy supplier if you're going to quick charge frequently since they provide cheap charging to their clients and have a completely electric car charging network in Europe, according to EV Experts. (Electric Car Features, n.d.)

Fast Charging

            A 3–8-hour charge when connected to an EV charging unit may be found in public parking lots, at work, or by having one installed at your residence. The government of the United Kingdom subsidizes the installation of home charging units. We can provide you with information about available grants in your region. On top of that, we can walk you through the numerous networks that offer charging devices in supermarkets, shopping centers, recreation facilities (including amusement parks), municipal parking lots, and restaurants.

                A charging network should be joined, the network's app should be downloaded to locate a charging unit, and pay is straightforward and fast. (Electric Car Features, n.d.)

Trickle Charging

            An overnight connection to a typical 3-pin electrical socket is found in most homes. Most of our vehicles are delivered with a charging cable for use at home. We can provide you with any more leads that you need. It will take around 12 hours to charge your car completely, and the power will cost approximately $37.71. Customer installation of home charging equipment for fast charging their EV is strongly recommended.

If you're going to stay with friends, don't forget to bring the lead so that you can connect straight into a wall socket rather than an extension lead. (Electric Car Features, n.d.)

Limitations

                Electric automobiles have permanently altered the automotive business. Because of their fuel-efficient characteristics, many drivers can enjoy their commute to and from work without incurring significant gasoline expenses. Hybrid vehicles, which are electric vehicles that operate on electric power but convert to gasoline when the battery power runs out, are usually referred to as hybrid vehicles. Hybrid automobiles can travel a variety of distances on electric power, depending on the type and the capacity of the battery. If you get a car that has a range of around 40 miles on maximum power, it will most likely be sufficient for your daily work commute.

                On the other hand, Hybrids are not without flaws, as seen by their poor market penetration. Here are the top five most often encountered drawbacks of all-electric vehicles. (Stan, 2016)

1. Battery power is limited.

                   One of the most significant disadvantages of electric vehicles has been the restricted capacity of the vehicle's lithium-ion battery. When ultimately charged, the majority of the vehicles now available have a driving range of fewer than 100 miles. It is only lately that top automobile manufacturers, such as Tesla, have introduced vehicles with a range of more than 250 miles. Tesla has accomplished this feat by developing a novel method of producing its batteries for use in electric vehicles. The business has developed a method that connects many tiny batteries to generate enough power to provide drivers with a driving range of 265 miles. Even though Toyota is one of the world's top automobile manufacturers, the company has only been able to produce an electric vehicle that can go 100 miles on an ultimately charged battery. (Stan, 2016)

2. The cost of electric vehicles is prohibitively expensive.

                Electric vehicles are pretty expensive when compared to gasoline-powered vehicles. In the case of the new Tesla Model S, the cost is around $75,000 to $70,000. Many individuals will not afford the price since the batteries will need to be changed after a few years. The good news is that certain firms, such as General Motors, have plans to create an electric Chevrolet vehicle that is estimated to retail for roughly $35,000 when it is released. (Stan, 2016)

3. Charging takes an excessive amount of time.

            You may not be able to take advantage of the benefits of an electric automobile unless you charge your car batteries overnight. The usual charge period for an electric automobile is around four and a half hours, which means that if you need to go someplace quickly, you will need to use gasoline instead of electricity. The difference is significant when comparing how long it takes to fill up a vehicle with gasoline. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel, thanks to experts working tirelessly to develop batteries that can be recharged in minutes rather than hours. The majority of the research focuses on lithium-ion batteries, which can be recharged more quickly and last for a more extended period than other batteries. (Stan, 2016) 

4. A reduction in the number of models

                Even though many manufacturers think that electric vehicles will be popular in the future, just a few manufacturers have committed to developing the vehicles. Consequently, just a handful of electric vehicle types are available today. It is also noteworthy that the majority of the few models that are now accessible are made up of little automobiles. Electric vehicle producers have not created luxury or off-road cars that appeal to a wide range of consumers. Because many automobile customers are looking for opulent amenities in their vehicles, they will have to wait longer for the manufacturers to release an enticing luxury vehicle. (Stan, 2016)

5. The absence of charging stations outside of your immediate vicinity

            One significant disadvantage of electric vehicles is that you can only charge your vehicle at home or at a charger location since they need specific charging equipment. As a result, if you decide to go for a long distance away from your typical charging outlet, you may be compelled to use gasoline for the remainder of your trip. The automotive industry has pushed for installing plug-in devices in gas stations, parks, and retail establishments to facilitate the charging of electric vehicles. In most cases, if you charge your phone in one of the charging units accessible in public areas, you will be paid for the service. As a result, you should investigate the cost of charging and set aside a budget for it before you begin your adventure. (Stan, 2016)

Supporting Forces

The 'driving' force behind electric vehicles

            Cultural variations across nations extend to the highest levels of government, having a significant impact on technical innovation. In a recent publication in the journal Policy Sciences, researchers Dr. David Calef and Dr. Robert Goble describe a comparative study they conducted. The authors describe the efforts made by the United States and France governments during the 1990s to pass laws that would encourage technical innovation to improve urban air quality by encouraging clean automobiles, notably electric vehicles (EVs). The research draws attention to the variations in approach and policy-making styles between the two regimes and how these distinctions may have influenced the ultimate result.

                In the case of California, requirements were put in place that required zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) to account for a particular proportion of automobile production and sales, with penalties levied if the state failed to meet the objectives. Both the oil and automobile companies were very opposed to this and spent a lot of lobbying against it. The argument received extensive media attention, and environmentalists from both sides of the aisle expressed their opinions. There was a long-standing mutual distrust between the two sides, which fuelled a hostile relationship. Participation from the general public was actively solicited.

                On the other hand, the French mandate was marked by a significant amount of government intervention. In many cases, interactions between the government and companies took place "behind closed doors," away from the public's gaze. In contrast to the United States, no organization ever claimed that electric vehicles were a nuisance. A pact was signed between the state-owned energy utility, the car industry, and local administrative entities, all of which agreed to contribute to the development of electric vehicles. Failure to achieve goals did not result in any fines being levied. Individuals were offered subsidies to encourage them to purchase electric vehicles.

                The wide range of regulations implemented reflects both the practical and cultural differences between the United States and France. American cities are characterized by urban sprawl (which makes it harder to utilize EVs), a low fuel tax, and a politically active and loud environmental lobby. On the other hand, France's cities have a characteristically compact layout, making electric vehicles more practicable. The nuclear power sector has minimal competition and has a surplus of the electricity-generating capability to offer consumers. In France, public awareness of environmental concerns is minimal, and the high fuel tax serves as a significant source of cash for the government.

            Finally, the diverse approaches to attaining the same aim did not influence the final result. Both nations fell short of their objectives in terms of reducing urban pollution. The tighter laws in the United States, on the other hand, drove the automotive industry to provide an alternate answer, which it did in the shape of hybrid automobiles. According to the authors, this is common sense in the United States; technology solutions are chosen above behavioral change initiatives. In France, technical solutions are closely associated with national status, which many people see as cultural elitism. France failed to turn this into a "great project," and it is possible that a lack of public awareness prevented it from moving further.

            This comparison reveals that individual cultures continue to have "standard operating procedures" that represent "deeply established national political and social cultures," notwithstanding the rising globalization of the world economy. The report also recommends that governments consider the cultural component while pushing policy reform. (The "driving" Force behind Electric Vehicles, n.d.)

Challenging Forces

            The five significant challenges facing electric vehicles

1. It takes time for things to change.

            The all-electric Tesla Model 3 is one of the best-selling automobiles in the United Kingdom. However, the fact that just approximately 1.1 percent of new cars produced this year are electric and that there is almost no market for used electric vehicles does not diminish the significance of the company's achievement. Because it takes the majority of UK drivers anywhere between one and fifteen years to replace their cars, many of us will not be considering purchasing an electric vehicle anytime soon. Sales of new gasoline and diesel automobiles are scheduled to halt on specific dates. Bans that have been declared, proposed, and enacted are included; however, nations with the aim of merely no complete petrol or diesel cars (for example, Japan) or a partial objective (for example, the United Kingdom) are excluded (e.g., Mexico). Changes on a larger scale are required. For example, we will need a significant increase in charging stations for electric cars.

            Furthermore, since gasoline taxes are a significant source of revenue for the government - and because electric car users pay reduced taxes - it is possible that adjustments to the tax system may be necessary. Individuals and organizations must also be persuaded that electric cars are a good fit for their requirements. This is possibly the most challenging step. More information on the "transport revolution" in energy may be found in the BBC Briefing. The administration wants to phase out the sale of new gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040, a deadline that has been criticized by members of Parliament who want the shift to take place by 2030. However, even if these objectives are reached, it will probably be decades before electric cars become the most prevalent mode of transportation on our roadways.

2. There is a limited selection.

            The number of vans on the highways of the United Kingdom is expanding at a higher rate than any other kind of vehicle, owing in part to the enormous development in internet shopping in recent years. Small electric vehicles are already on the market, and the variety of options available will only continue to grow. It is impossible to compare the pricing of diesel and electric vehicles in the same city. However, leasing an electric version of a popular van may be much more costly than leasing a diesel version of the same van. This will likely mean that electric vans will stay out of reach for many small businesses and self-employed delivery workers for the foreseeable future. Two thousand sixteen emissions from road transport in the United Kingdom, broken down by mode. Pie chart illustrating how automobiles and taxis were the most significant source of carbon dioxide emissions in 2016, followed by heavy goods vehicles, vans, and buses.

            White space for presentational purposes; there is a more outstanding option for people in the market for a new automobile, but electric cars are disproportionately targeted towards the upper end of the price spectrum. Only a few all-electric vehicles are available for less than £20,000, and a new Tesla Model 3 costs over $37000.00 to purchase. Prices are expected to decline, and running an electric car is often less expensive than operating a gasoline or diesel vehicle. However, the higher initial prices of electric cars may deter many drivers from purchasing them in the immediate future, even if a thriving second-hand market arises soon.

3. Investing in the most appropriate technologies

                Although battery and charging technology is advancing fast, this creates significant uncertainty in the market. Will charging technology be the gold standard in the future? This is a specific issue for those who live in apartment buildings or homes without a separate parking place. What should people anticipate when they see bollards or lamp posts along their street that allow them to charge their phones? Perhaps, home charging will be less significant in the future than today. Should drivers use the amenities at gas stations, their place of business, or in vacant supermarket parking lots at night? The use of induction pads embedded in key roadways to charge automobiles as they pass over them is another alternative now being investigated. Using input from academics, experts, and journalists, the BBC Briefing series is a mini-series of downloadable guides on the most critical problems in the news. In response to public requests for more in-depth explanations of the facts behind the headlines, the BBC has launched this initiative. Should we put an end to our air travel? Is it true that cities are detrimental to the environment as we believe? The path to renewable energy; the grey line is for presentation purposes only. Because of the uncertainty around which method will become the most frequent, private sector investment in charging infrastructure is being held back.

            Additionally, it makes the work of municipal governments more challenging. Acting too quickly may result in placing a bet on the incorrect horse. Waiting too long may increase the number of individuals who purchase hybrid cars, which rely less on charging infrastructure but still run on fossil fuels.

4. Who will be responsible for payment?

            Even if a standard design for charging is developed, the age-old issue of who would pay for the installation of the design will continue to exist. In the United Kingdom, it is largely anticipated that the private sector would construct, manage, and maintain charging infrastructure. On the other hand, businesses have been sluggish in adopting the technology, partly because profit margins are still low, and the government has substantially subsidized the creation of charging stations. In recent years, BP and Shell have acquired market leaders Chargemaster and Newmotion, respectively, while Tesla is rapidly expanding its charging infrastructure at highway service stations.

            Six factors influence your chances of receiving a wage raise. Who are the smokers who haven't given up the habit? The vegetarian "meat" is intended to take the place of the real thing. What is causing so many people to abandon London? However, the debate remains on how much of a role the government should have in building future transportation infrastructure. If increasing the number of individuals who drive electric cars is in the public interest, should local governments pay for charging stations in places where demand is too low to generate a sustainable profit?

            In addition, how should investment in infrastructure compared to that in social services such as libraries or safe cycling paths, mainly when local authority resources are so limited as they are now?

5. The dream of a carbon-free world

            Even zero-emission cars, such as electric automobiles, are not a zero-carbon answer. Although they do not emit the typical exhaust pipe pollutants, even if all of the power in the United Kingdom were generated from renewable sources, there would be an environmental cost. The mining of minerals for batteries, the disassembly of batteries that have deteriorated, and the assembly and delivery of automobiles to clients throughout the globe all result in significant CO2 emissions. It is difficult to dismantle all of the connections. Electric cars are a critical component of the United Kingdom's efforts to cut transportation-related pollution substantially. However, they are not a panacea. A significant transition away from motorized vehicles is the only option to significantly minimize transportation's impact on climate change, no matter how difficult and politically unpleasant that may be. (The Five Major Challenges Facing Electric Vehicles - BBC News, n.d.)

Methods

Structured Design Process (SDP)

            A well-defined ontology is the first of these characteristics. Ontologies are needed to guarantee that individuals from different cultures and backgrounds utilize the same terminology and symbols (for visual thinkers) to depict the same things when confronted with global difficulties. The ontology of Schreibman and Christakis is shown in this diagram. In our talks, we may use this ontology to consider Humans as an Internet Node. When it comes to processing data, how do we view (if visual) or obtain information via the Internet? How can we query data via the human interface? Is our node able to predict what we are going to ask?

        How can we become a node while maintaining our safety and the safety of others?

            The Fields may also be of use for organizing our ideas into forces. The safety field, for example, has a significant impact on whether or not this vision succeeds or fails. In this context, subtopics or groups of our concepts would be called "profiles." Maps and Pathways of Plausibility: I appreciate this feature. Case analysis and scenario research are incredibly similar when building a Concept of Operation.

            We are allocating fields and profiles to maps and paths. Planning for innovation and transformation may also benefit from the Structured Design Process (SDP). This diagram depicts a high-level view of the SDP process. A complicated problem necessitates creativity or change. First, you need to know the issue to be handled before beginning any preparation. As John Dewey famously said, a well-stated issue is just half the battle won. The rest of the procedure ensures everyone understands and contributes to the issue. Groupthink should be avoided at all costs, and the group should come up with a choice that each person in the group can be proud of.

Models

                                     (1–2 Visual Models of the Electric Car. - Bing Images, n.d.)


                                    (1–2 Visual Models of the Electric Car. - Bing Images, n.d.)

Analytical Plan

            Automakers expect the next ten years to be the most transformative in the industry's history, with more change than the last two decades. There will be a tremendous shift in the automotive industry by 2025 when everything from materials and fuels to the cost of automobiles will be substantially altered. It is predicted that by the year 2025, electric vehicles will account for more than half of all vehicles on the road. (Driving into 2025, n.d.)

            Internal combustion engines (ICEs) are set to be phased out by automakers as governments try to reduce fuel pollution. According to industry estimates, an estimated 30 percent of all vehicle sales will be made up of electric and hybrid vehicles (EVs and HEVs) by 2025. Plug-in electric vehicle sales were a mere 1% of the worldwide total in 2016, according to data from the ACEA (PEVs). 1

            According to J.P. Morgan, this number might reach as much as 8.4 million cars by 2025, representing a 7.7 percent market share. Although this is a significant increase, it pales to the predicted rise in HEVs - vehicles that combine a gasoline engine with electric components. Over the same period, this sector is expected to grow from barely 3% of worldwide market share to over 25 million cars or 23% of global sales. 1 With this, pure-ICE cars will have a market share of around 70% in 2025 and 40% in 2030, with the majority coming from developing economies. (Driving into 2025, n.d.)

Anticipated Results

            Vehicles powered by electricity are expected to become the next disruptive force in transportation and technology. These technologies might revolutionize energy production, usage, and distribution. It's possible to reduce the harmful effects of conventional automobiles by using electric vehicles. There are many additional advantages for society as well, though. There has been a shift in energy use and generation with electric vehicles. They've shown how critical it is to develop new energy sources and how doing so may positively impact the environment and society. When converting input energy into movement energy, electric vehicles (EVs) are 75% efficient (kinetic energy). Internal combustion engines (ICE) in gas-powered automobiles, on the other hand, are just 25% efficient. Energy conversion is reduced due to the reduced number of components in electric vehicles. When compared to gas-powered motors, this has a lower waste of energy. It's even nicer than electric vehicle brakes that don't operate the same way gas-powered automobile brakes do: they have regenerative braking. While braking, the car's battery may be charged! This regenerative braking works like this: A generator instead of a brake pad is used to recover part of the energy that would otherwise be squandered by converting friction into heat.

            Greenhouse gas emissions and their role in global warming are significant factors in introducing electric automobiles onto the market. To address this problem, electric automobiles were developed that produced little or no exhaust emissions. In cities, where millions of people use automobiles, the reduction in carbon emissions has the most significant effect. Electrified vehicles reduce air pollution since they don't have exhaust pipes. So transportation-related pollution is significantly reduced as a result. Even if all of its fuel comes from fossil fuels, a gas automobile will be more polluting than an electric vehicle. Why? There is little doubt that electric automobiles are more efficient than their gasoline-powered counterparts. This implies that electric automobiles use less energy than regular gasoline-powered vehicles. We should also be aiming for 100% renewable energy shortly. We can't keep focusing on the past because we wouldn't have any new ideas if we did.

Conclusion

            With all of the high-tech advances and the future advances to the EVs (Electric Vehicles), I see some hope for its future. One major technology that needs attention continually is our Cybersecurity Infrastructure. We have to make sure our Electric Grid is secure from domestic and foreign bad actors, whether hackers or terrorists. We will still need to look at ways to bring down the cost of EVs and the Charging Stations used for everyone to afford such innovation.

Areas of Future Research

            I mainly see just three areas of future research, as stated in my conclusion above, which are the Electric Grid Security, Cybersecurity to protect the Autonomous Vehicles and the Electric Grid, Away for EVs to be self-charging from their motion to enable them to travel from the East Coast to the West Coast without having to be recharged at charging stations.

                                                                 References

1–2 visual models of the electric car. - Bing images. (n.d.). Retrieved May 7, 2022, from https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=TsexVDd0&id=2FB51D5A9F7820D15DEC3076457EBA0BAA6030F9&thid=OIP.TsexVDd03WwBpShdKMhtcwAAAA&mediaurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emsd.gov.hk%2Fenergyland%2Ffilemanager%2Ftemplate%2Fen%2Fimages%2F5_3_10.jpg&exph=241&expw=250&q=1%e2%80%932+visual+models+of+the+electric+car.&simid=607986242069268299&form=IRPRST&ck=4204BC310F277567BF660EF6C71836AE&selectedindex=4&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0&cdnurl=https%3A%2F%2Fth.bing.com%2Fth%2Fid%2FR.4ec7b1543774dd6c01a5285d28c86d73%3Frik%3D%252bTBgqgu6fkV2MA%26pid%3DImgRaw%26r%3D0&pivotparams=insightsToken%3Dccid_TfxwUWu6*cp_4A77A7FB1BEA85D2710A23C7B41259F4*mid_C7F9AF31DCE7C2578823BC240A82CCC2982C95B7*simid_608046921374135800*thid_OIP.TfxwUWu6FSziTkUu7YhiCAHaFj&vt=0&sim=11&iss=VSI&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

Driving into 2025: The Future of Electric Vehicles | J.P. Morgan. (n.d.). Retrieved May 7, 2022, from https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/electric-vehicles

Electric Car Features. (n.d.). EV Experts. Retrieved April 30, 2022, from https://www.evexperts.co.uk/features/

Stan. (2016, April 25). 5 Most Common Disadvantages Of All Electric Cars. Auto Review. https://autordee.com/5-common-disadvantages-electric-cars/

The "driving" force behind electric vehicles. (n.d.). Retrieved April 30, 2022, from https://phys.org/news/2007-05-electric-vehicles.html

The five major challenges facing electric vehicles—BBC News. (n.d.). Retrieved April 30, 2022, from https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-49578790

 

 

 



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