Futuring and Innovation: Futuring and Innovation I

                                                   CS875-2202C-01

Raphael Brown

Colorado Technical University

Instructor: Dr. Cynthia Calongne

Date: 04/21/22

If you had all of the time, money, and talent, what would you do in the following areas?

Education

1.      Complete my Degree Program in Computer Science (Cybersecurity & Information Assurance).

2.     Earn several certifications in Cybersecurity and Information Assurance.

3.      Be an Instructor and continue the knowledge transfer process, nationally and internationally.

4.     Write and publish scholarly articles on various aspects of Cybersecurity and Information Assurance.

5.     Learn a couple of foreign languages such as French, German, and Kumar (Cambodian)

6.    Write and publish scholarly articles on various aspects of Cybersecurity and Information Assurance.

7.      Build a website or blog meant for imparting knowledge on various aspects of Cybersecurity and Information Assurance, the future of technology.

8.     Attend future Webinars that relate to Cybersecurity and Information Assurance.

9.    Engage in resolving international scientific disputes and conflicts.

10 Learn how to play the Banjo.

JoJob or research

1.     Business owner (Consulting in Information Security Management).

2.     Technology Trainer

3.     Encourage and engage in studies on how technology may improve healthcare and save lives.   

4.     Work toward minimizing cyberattacks on companies by developing cybersecurity training programs for specific organizations.

5.     I aim to do a significant study on many parts of technology that might help us reach our objective of reducing the incidence of cyberattacks in enterprises if we are to be successful in developing ways to do so.

6.     Improve the effectiveness of the company's research and development strategy

7.     Improve the readability and predictability of the future environment.

8.     Research and develop new Cybersecurity Software and Hardware.

9.     One of my ambitions is to become a social media influencer, particularly in technology.

10.  Increase the amount of job-oriented training and the amount of training for trainers.

Philosophical or religious

1.       In Ireland and Scotland, pay a visit to the churches.

2.     Assist God in numerous facets of my everyday life by becoming a voice for him

3.     Visit archaeological sites in Israel and Mongolia.

4.     In the Turkish highlands, on the lookout for Noah's Ark.

5.     Visit Rome and have a look at some of the early thinkers there.

6.     Travel to Tibet to have a deeper understanding of their religion.

7.     Pay a visit to the Vatican

8.     Investigate the Buddist Religion.

9.     Learn Hebrew to be able to read the original documents.

10.  Learn Greek to be able to read the original documents.

Travel

1.     Firstly, take a trip to the Atlantic Ocean.

2.     Take a Mediterranean cruise to get away from it all.

3.     Go on a cruise around the Pacific Ocean.

4.     Travel to Africa to see the Pyramids of Giza and embark on a safari, among other things.

5.     Return to Asia to see the Great Wall of China, the Terracotta Army, and a variety of Buddhist monasteries a third time with my wife, who is Asian.

6.     Take a trip to Australia and explore the outback region.

7.     Return to Europe to see the Eiffel Tower, Big Ben, the remnants of the Berlin Wall, the Colosseum, and Pompeii, including highlights of the continent.

8.     Travel to the Middle East, where you will see numerous sites in Israel and Dubai, among other places.

9.     Visit the Polynesian islands (Bora Bora and Tahiti) and add a stop in Hawaii.

10.  . Travel to South America, where you may view Mayan monuments and the statue of Christ the Redeemer in Brazil.

Home

1.     I would re-plant trees, bushes, and flowers in the landscape around mulch and rocks to refresh and maintain the property's look.

2.     I would install wireless access points around the house to guarantee that external signals reach the end of the outside property line and all interior rooms as efficiently as possible.

3.     I would purchase and install all new energy-efficient appliances that are also internet-ready.

4.     I'd want to repaint my home (same colors).

5.     Hardwood flooring would be installed throughout the whole home.

6.     I would purchase the tools and hardware necessary to decorate the house's exterior fixtures for the various holidays that would be celebrated (e.g., Christmas and Halloween).

7.     An online system controlled by my family's cellphones would be used to manage the lights, windows, and door locking devices in my home.

8.     If possible, I'd re-start the irrigation system in both the front and back yards.

9.     I would add a thermal ground system to maintain the temperature ideal for the grass to stay green year-round and clear for my dachshunds to run around year-round (see Denver Broncos' Empower Field at Mile High for more information on this).

10.  I would re-run the CAT-V wiring throughout the whole building, all the way down to my central server room.

Conclusion

To conclude this exploratory endeavor, I would say that my desire for knowledge and my commitment to preserving "what is right" are the most critical factors. And "what is right" is a contentious debate in philosophy and religion. Although they are sometimes at odds, there is a great deal of overlap, which excites me about both disciplines. Furthermore, the need to travel while retaining my residence fosters an appreciation for diverse cultures and landscapes and a feeling of pride in what I believe to be my own.

Futuring and Innovation: Futuring and Innovation I

CS875-2202C-01

Unit 7 Discussion Board 2

Raphael Brown

Colorado Technical University

Instructor: Dr. Cynthia Calongne

Date: 04/21/22

Serendipity

            We use various goods and services daily in today's world, resulting from an unexpectedly lucky discovery and many mistakes. Serendipity is an unplanned, unintentional, or unexpected yet fortunate and desired discovery that occurs by chance and is of significant advantage to the one who makes the discovery. Accidental innovations are best described by the term "serendipity." When it comes to fantastic inventions that are very useful to society, which happened by chance to be champagne, the best example I can come up with by far. A connection has been made between the champagne discovery and the low winter temperatures in the northeastern part of France, where champagne was initially developed. When it comes to making wine, the freezing temperatures of the winter frequently cause the fermentation process of the grapes to be interrupted, leaving latent yeast cells that will awaken in the spring when the temperatures rise and restart the fermentation process from the beginning of the process. Carbon dioxide is produced as a byproduct of the fermentation process. It stays trapped in the bottled wine, resulting in tremendous pressure that may result in the explosion of the bottled wine (Liger-Belair et al., 2008). However, the wine had bubbles in the bottles that had withstood the pressure, and this was not the kind of wine that the winemakers had meant to produce. Although this sparkling wine with bubbles, often known as champagne, has grown more popular and is linked with festivities, it is not a glass of true champagne. Given the widespread conception of champagne as a symbol of high society, aristocracy, and monarchy, wine is enjoyed all over the globe. It serves as a symbol of wealth and celebration (Moncel, 2021). Champagne has grown to become one of the most costly wines on the market, and it is made in a variety of styles with varying levels of quality reflected in the price; as a side note, red wine is considered the healthiest one to drink.

Error

To err is human, and since we are human beings, we are predisposed to make mistakes. An error is wrongful conduct that deviates from the truth or desired conclusion that was not intended. On the other hand, making errors has shown to be the most effective method of moving ahead in any endeavor we are involved in since the flaws we experience as we develop motivate us to try even more challenging to repair the errors while also discovering new regions of previously undiscovered truths along the route (Siegfried, 2020). I can remember some of the mistakes that resulted in significant discoveries, such as the discovery of Frosted Flakes and Cornflakes, which the Kellogg brothers made. John and Will made a clumsy decision that resulted in the invention of both Frosted Flakes and Cornflakes. According to the article, the Kellogg brothers were boiling grain when they made the mistake of leaving the pot of cooked grains on the burner for many days, resulting in the grain fermenting. The combination became moldy as a result. After the mold had been removed, the result was a dry, thick cereal. Using the molded mixture and rolling it out into thin sheets, thin flakes were made that were excellent and crispy when dried in the oven (Pruitt, 2019). Both Frosted Flakes and Cornflakes, a famous morning cereal made from this crunchy and flavorful dry dough, are now widely available.

Exaptation

Exaptation, also known as Co-option, Darwin argued that evolution occurs typically due to minor, gradual changes in the environment. In other cases, evolution seems to have skipped over many intermediate stages to arrive at a later, fully developed stage far more quickly than this. In hindsight, these jumps seem to be practically magical, and they may be attributed more to Lamarckian than Darwinian processes (e.g., animals needed jaws, so they grew them). Following that, I will explore how many academics have attempted to answer the issue of these evolutionary leaps within a Darwinian framework and what they have learned along the way. We will have to travel a long road, starting with Darwin himself and extending to the current day. We will come across three terminologies: preadaptation, exaptation, and co-option.

Darwin addressed several critics of his theory of natural selection in Chapter VI of The Origin of Species (Darwin 1872). One crucial point of contention was the lack of transitional phases (of characteristics) in the fossil record or extant species. If natural selection works through slow changes, the world should be flooded with transitional phases. If we can't find them in the fossil record or living creatures, where are they? (McLennan, 2008)

Darwin had several solutions to this crucial topic, one of which entailed modifying an existing structure's function. In certain circumstances, two organs performed the same job, allowing selection to improve one and alter the second, now redundant, organ. "An exceedingly significant transition mechanism" in evolution, Darwin (1872, p. 175). In other circumstances, an organ with dual functions was repurposed to serve just one of them. The beginning circumstances and "transitional stage" may be concealed in the previous procedures. A gas bladder is an organ that regulates buoyancy in teleost fishes. Fortunately, primitive ray-finned fishes show that the gas bladder initially performed both tasks and evolved in two distinct ways. The gills do all the breathing in teleost fishes, and the gas bladder is now used for buoyancy. In lobe-finned fishes, gills finally vanished when the gas bladder evolved into a lung. It would have been impossible to recreate this route if the primitive ray-finned fishes had vanished. (McLennan, 2008)

References

McLennan, D. A. (2008). The Concept of Co-option: Why Evolution Often Looks Miraculous. Evolution: Education and Outreach, 1(3), 247–258. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12052-008-0053-8

Moncel, B. (2021). What Is Champagne? TheSpruceEats. https://www.thespruceeats.com/what-is-champagne-1328734

Pruitt, S. (2019). How an Accidental Invention Changed What Americans Eat for Breakfast. History. https://www.history.com/news/cereal-breakfast-origins-kellogg

Siegfried, T. (2020). These are science's Top 10 erroneous results. ScienceNews. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/science-top-10-erroneous-results-mistakes

Scenario-type Planning

Futuring and Innovation: Planning and Forecasting II

CS875-2202C-01

Unit 6 Individual Project

Raphael Brown

Colorado Technical University

Instructor: Dr. Cynthia Calongne

Date Due: 04/17/22

Scenario-type Planning 

A case study illustrating how a corporation or an industry failed to engage in adequate scenario-type planning and instead relied only on typical forecasting methods is shown.

            The bankruptcy of Monitor Group is an example of a case study that demonstrates how a firm or an industry failed to do effective scenario-type planning and instead relied only on expected forecasts. In 2012, Speed Matters published an article stating that Monitor Group's bankruptcy was the consequence of a delay in taking solid efforts to avert bankruptcy, which they were engaged to resolve for their customers in the first place. Recognizing the shortsightedness of an organization requires personal reflection on the part of the people in charge of the organization. Identifying the specific corporate and communal expressions of such shortsightedness is more complicated. The declaration of bankruptcy by Monitor is an excellent example of this. The failure to do effective scenario-type planning was a significant difficulty for the Monitor Group. When it comes to companies, the difficulty is reflected in the fact that collectively held views may drive management teams to disregard developing patterns of fact that suggest step-function change. The two challenges can collide in companies with strong intellectual capabilities, such as Monitor, with fatal consequences. The Monitor was a provider of scenario planning services, among other things, and was well-known in the industry. Unfortunately, most of what passes for scenario thinking is little more than a kind of executive amusement masquerading as applicable (Speed Matters, 2012).

What role does scenario-type planning play in planning and innovation for change?

When scenario planning is correctly done, it can aid in the planning and innovation of the change process by offering the tools for making strategic choices and taking swift remedial action when something goes wrong (Kearney, 2012). For business executives looking to make sense of the complex causes of global change and their consequences for their organizations, scenario-based strategic planning has re-emerged as a crucial tool. However, to stay relevant, scenario planning must adapt as a strategic tool to keep up with the always-changing business environment. Beginning with a reorientation of scenario-planning exercises to emphasize the strategic tools and advantages that the process produces, this development must be undertaken (Kearney, 2012).

The forces at play, as well as the consequences of their actions

In scenario planning, two factors have been noted as necessary: the immediate and widespread worldwide effect of unanticipated events such as 9/11 or the global economic crisis; and the increased rate at which new trends become tangible. For example, the fast expansion of China and India, the advent of social media, and the widespread use of smartphones have all happened within a decade or less of one another (Axson, 2011). Axson (2011) also demonstrates a fundamental technique that may be used as an example or as a model for a scenario-based action plan:

Future innovation endeavors will benefit from the use of scenario planning.

            Future innovation initiatives will need the generation of a dynamic succession of probable outcomes that will help to challenge prejudices. This will be accomplished via the use of scenario planning. It will be necessary to research existing organizations that may be used in such situations. This would allow the process to reveal blind spots and find the factors that bring companies together around a widely agreed sense of direction and action (or lack thereof).

Prepare a scenario plan and take into consideration the social impact of change.

            The social effect of the change is taken into consideration in the scenario planning process. First and foremost, it provides executives with a deeper awareness of their environment and the macro forces of change at work, allowing them to drill down to decision-making at the operational level with more confidence (Axson, 2011). Scenario planning is concerned with creating a vision for the future. Essentially, it is a way through which businesses may develop an understanding of probable future situations and how they can impact their strategic goals. When challenges or changes arise, an organization will be able to make better choices due to the use of these scenarios. Scenario Planning Templates are a valuable tool for assisting you with your strategic planning, product or service development processes, and other tasks.

 

References

Axson, D. J. (2011). Scenario Planning: Navigating Through Today's Uncertain World. Journal of Accountancy. Retrieved from http://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2011/mar/20103483.html

Kearney, A. T. (2012). Scenario-Based Strategic Planning in Times of Tumultuous Change. Retrieved from https://www.atkearney.com/documents/10192/376745/Scenario-Based_Strategic_Planning_in_Times_of_Tumultuous_Change.pdf/0012fe94-4038-449b-8423-bc81a3dba1a5

Speed Matters (2012). Monitor Group: A Failure of Scenario Planning. Retrieved from http://spendmatters.com/2012/11/13/monitor-group-a-failure-of-scenario-planning/

Planning and Forecasting II

Futuring and Innovation: Planning and Forecasting II

CS875-2202C-01

Raphael Brown

Colorado Technical University

Instructor: Dr. Cynthia Calongne

Date: 04/14/22

 

Socio-technical Perspective for Design

      It was illustrated in the article named affectability in education technologies how digital artworks may be used to increase students' attention while also increasing the efficiency of the learning environment. Technology may also be used in the classroom environment to help teachers interact with their pupils more personally. A qualitative exploration was conducted by the owners, whose primary goal was to report on the findings of a qualitative investigation that would answer questions such as how new technology would be introduced in the learning environment and ensure that it makes sense to the user, as well as what are the capabilities of the technology in contributing to integrated learning scenarios, among other things (Hayashi, & Baranauskas, 2013). When using the XO education or laptop, this piece has successfully proven the ability to blend the school's formal and informal practices into expressive learning via technology.

    It is possible to get a thorough analysis of new perspectives on understanding learning processes mediated by technology and the rules of affectability in the design of educational systems. Unstructured learning is a form of learning in a former operating environment but is not graded in the usual sense. The intentionality of learning, which must be present for learning to occur, has been thoroughly and insightfully examined in this work; yet, different learners may represent it in varying degrees. In the informal learning process, it has been established that the aim is missing in certain instances (Hayashi, & Baranauskas, 2013). On the other hand, the facts of education need deductive thinking and knowledge of the realities in a dialogically understandable way. The digital culture is crucial in shaping the new realities to which learning settings should be accommodated, and the digital culture necessitates the implementation of transformational reforms in educational institutions. The goal is not to stop education altogether but rather to alter it thoroughly to be reborn as a new and updated human.         For schools to keep up with the times, they must include technological changes that democratically allow them to accept technology breakthroughs. If foreign technology is forced into the classroom, it will not alleviate the problem of the vast majority of Brazilians being unable to access the technologies in question (Hayashi, & Baranauskas, 2013). A revision of the formal learning environment must occur, with young children's needs and social-technological views taking precedence. This would be a beneficial contribution to the dialogical techniques proposed by Freire in 1968. The discourse about the most effective ways to integrate technology into learning must include active listening and a desire to understand one another, adapt our differences, and be conscious of the values of the other party participating in the conversation.

References

Hayashi, E. S., & Baranauskas, M. C. (2013). Affectability in educational technologies: A socio-technical perspective for design. Journal of Educational Technology & Society, 16(1), 57–68.

    

Futuring and Innovation: Planning and Forecasting I

CS875-2202C-01

Unit 5 Discussion Board 2

Raphael Brown

Colorado Technical University

Instructor: Dr. Cynthia Calongne

Date Due: 03/31/22

Concepts of Forecasting and Predictions

Disclaimer:

            No one has the ability to precisely forecast the future. However, in business, one must continuously look for changes, both in the external and internal surroundings. As a result, it is necessary to make informed guesses about the future from time to time. In this case, forecasting is a vital tool for planning that may be beneficial. Allow us to learn more about forecasting techniques.

    When creating predictions regarding the future direction of a corporation or firm, forecasting is done using trend analysis and data from the previous and current periods. So, in essence, data about the company is gathered and evaluated, and analysis is performed to anticipate future situations that are likely to occur. As a result, forecasting is a critical instrument in strategic business planning.

    Managers often create forecasts (at various levels, including statisticians, specialists, economists, and consultants, among others). They include a significant amount of data collection (both historical and current) and data analysis. Scientific tools and methodologies are also used in this process. Nevertheless, predicting is not a precise science at the end of the day. There will always be some degree of speculation and observation involved. At this point, the expertise and experience of these professionals come into play.

The following are some essential qualities or elements of forecasting:

·       Forecasting is only concerned with events that will occur in the future.

·       It assesses the likelihood of a future event or transaction occurring or taking place.

·       It entails the examination of facts from both the past and the present.

·       Forecasting is the process of making predictions using scientific tools and procedures.

·       However, it also requires some educated guesses and observations.

Identifying and comprehending the organizational structure

    There are an almost infinite number of things that may influence a company's destiny. Identification of all of these variables is neither feasible nor desired. To generate an accurate projection, managers must first identify the elements on which they should concentrate their efforts. As a result, both internal and external aspects must be investigated to discover the company's strategic components.

Predicting what will happen in the future

    Now that the groundwork has been built, the next stage is to develop a precise and scientific projection of the future. A mix of scientific methods and procedures is used in conjunction with professional judgment and observations. The prediction is not a perfect strategy but rather a map that will guide you through the future.

Determination of Disparities

    There will be no prediction that is 100 percent correct. A thorough examination and analysis of any variances or deviations from the projections are required. This will aid in the production of more accurate projections in the foreseeable future.

Making Modifications to the Forecasting Procedure

    Experience and practice are essential in developing the necessary expertise and professional judgment. With each cycle, the forecasting process is fine-tuned even more. As a result, we can learn from our errors and inadequacies and continue to improve our forecasting techniques.

    In an odd twist of fate, although there has been a steady fall in demand for physical books throughout time, the pace of decline seems to have slowed and even steadied in recent years. B & N states that commerce has grown marginally for its physical reading material. The company expects to close just eight locations this year, down from the previously announced intention to close six in the previous year (Wahba, 2016). There is some validity to this increase in demand for physical books. The proverbial pendulum seems to be swinging somehow, as Amazon established a physical bookshop in University Village in Seattle, indicating that the tide is turning (Wahba, 2016). Amazon now plans to construct a second bookstore in the Westfield University Town Center Mall in Southern California, with 400 more locations expected to open around the country in the future (Van Grove & Li, 2016). Amazon is guaranteeing that it is riding the crest of a wave of growth in book sales at brick-and-mortar shops after the enormous transition in the industry years ago to online reading and e-readers, as reported by the Wall Street Journal (Van Grove & Li, 2016).

    As stated in several conversations, the notion of forecasting and prediction is a constraining approach that does not foresee enormous upheavals in the environment and, as a result, does not succeed in constructing alternative future scenarios beyond the "typical" sequence of events. Forecasting and prediction methodologies may incorporate processes that provide the results necessary to anticipate possible future scenarios; however, it is also possible that many forecasting methods tend to focus on only a few and, as a result, severely restrict the scope of possibilities. As explained by Dr. Walonick, forecasting enables individuals to make choices based on factors that can be changed to prepare for the future. In contrast, prediction requires considering probable changes that might affect the future (1993). When predicting, Walonick (1993) makes three assumptions that must be taken into consideration:

 

1.     For starters, it is feasible to forecast the future or the changing course of events with high confidence in some instances.

2.     There will always be blind spots, some variable that appears out of nowhere.

3.     In other cases, providing projections is counterproductive since forecasts may lead to policy changes, which can alter future results.

 

    Dr. Walonick discussed several forecasting and prediction methods (1993). According to some, a method known as genius forecasting is comparable to "psychics" in that it is based on intuition, insight, and luck (Walonick, 1993). In addition to trend extrapolation, another strategy often used in the corporate sector is the consensus method. Experts are brought together to debate emerging elements and forces that may impact the future and establish practical preparedness to anticipate the resultant changes (Walonick, 1993). Regardless of the specific approaches used, a mix of procedures and adequate analysis are required to generate plausible future scenarios. Although no organization or person can be fully prepared for every possibility, they may plan for and create suitable reactions to those considered the most probable and most influential in their particular situation.

    An example of a renowned forecast was John Elfreth Watkins Jr., an American civil engineer who lived around 1900 and made several predictions, some of which were realized. One such forecast seems to be about mobile phones, and it was titled "Telephones Across the Globe." Watkins' prognosis was as follows (according to Geoghegan, 2012):

"It is anticipated that worldwide wireless telephone and telegraph connections would be established. A husband in the middle of the Atlantic will be able to communicate with his wife in Chicago, who will be seated in her boudoir at the time of the conversation. We shall be able to telephone China with the same ease we already communicate from New York to Brooklyn..."

    The concept of wireless telephones was incredibly groundbreaking, mainly when Alexander Graham Bell made the first transcontinental phone call roughly 15 years later when he invented the telephone (Geoghegan, 2012). The study placed at the time of Watkins' prediction was one of the determining factors in making it a reality. The telephone was conceived in 1876 and first used in large cities in 1900 when it was widely adopted. In 1915, however, it was only after Sir John Ambrose created the vacuum diode, followed by Lee de Forest's invention of the triode, which amplified signals, that the first transcontinental phone conversation could be made (Greatest Achievement, 2016). Interestingly, Bell and his financial backers offered to sell the patent to Western Union Telegraph at the time of invention. Still, the company declined to purchase the patent because it was perceived as nothing more than a toy that would not amount to anything (possibly due to a lack of foresight on the company) (ShoreTel, 2016). The installation of a telephone in the White House in 1878, which then-US President Rutherford B. Hayes used, was a significant factor in the success of the telephone. The telephone was a significant factor in the success of the telephone (PBS, n.d.). Western Union filed a lawsuit against the Bell Telephone Company in the following years, which was lost consistently. Bell Telephone eventually became American Telephone and Telegraph (AT & T) (PBS, n.d.).

 

 

References

Geoghagan, T. (2012) Ten 100-year predictions that came true. BBC News. [Online] http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-16444966

Greatest Achievements (2016). Telephone timeline. Retrieved from http://www.greatachievements.org/?id=3625

PBS (n.d.) More about Bell. Retrieved from http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/telephone/peopleevents/mabell.html

ShoreTel (2016). Alexander Graham Bell and the history of the telephone. Retrieved from https://www.shoretel.com/content/alexander-graham-bell-and-history-telephone

Van Grove, J. Li, S. (2016). Amazon to open 2nd physical bookstore, this one in Southern California. Los Angeles Times [Online]. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-amazonbooks-malls-20160308-story.html

Wahba, P (2015). Amazon Is opening an actual, real-life bookstore. Fortune. [Online] Retrieved from http://fortune.com/2015/11/03/amazon-bookstore/

Wahba, P. (2016). Barnes & Noble's stores provide relief as online sales plunge. Fortune.[Online] Retrieved from http://fortune.com/2016/03/03/barnes-noble-results/

Walonick, D. (1993). An overview of forecasting methodology. Retrieved from http://www.statpac.org/research-library/forecasting.htm